College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-136 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-136

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Ohio State 130.64 4.36
2)Texas Tech 126.86 8.14
3)Indiana 126.16 8.84
4)Notre Dame 124.04 10.96
5)Utah 122.29 12.71
6)Oregon 120.83 14.17
7)Miami 120.37 14.63
8)Texas A&M 118.70 16.30
9)USC 117.21 17.79
10)Vanderbilt 116.72 18.28
11)Oklahoma 115.36 19.64
12)Alabama 115.20 19.80
13)Ole Miss 114.81 20.19
14)Georgia 113.42 21.58
15)Texas 113.33 21.67
16)Michigan 110.77 24.23
17)Florida State 108.43 26.57
18)Tennessee 107.84 27.16
19)Pittsburgh 107.06 27.94
20)Washington 104.49 30.51
21)Missouri 104.46 30.54
22)SMU 104.14 30.86
23)Cincinnati 103.73 31.27
24)Iowa 101.35 33.65
25)BYU 101.18 33.82
26)LSU 101.02 33.98
27)Auburn 99.25 35.75
28)James Madison 98.49 36.51
29)Louisville 98.22 36.78
30)Arizona 97.40 37.60
31)Clemson 97.22 37.78
32)San Diego State 96.40 38.60
33)TCU 96.38 38.62
34)Arkansas 96.23 38.77
35)Illinois 95.58 39.42
36)Virginia 95.33 39.67
37)Nebraska 95.03 39.97
38)Kansas State 93.77 41.23
39)Georgia Tech 92.75 42.25
40)South Florida 92.35 42.65
41)North Texas 91.69 43.31
42)Mississippi State 90.22 44.78
43)NC State 87.47 47.53
44)Houston 87.40 47.60
45)UCF 86.53 48.47
46)Arizona State 85.60 49.40
47)Kentucky 85.32 49.68
48)Kansas 84.36 50.64
49)Penn State 83.79 51.21
50)Duke 83.46 51.54
51)Memphis 82.96 52.04
52)Iowa State 82.80 52.20
53)Toledo 81.94 53.06
54)Baylor 79.47 55.53
55)East Carolina 79.25 55.75
56)New Mexico 78.93 56.07
57)Old Dominion 77.36 57.64
58)Boise State 77.04 57.96
59)South Carolina 73.97 61.03
60)Northwestern 73.69 61.31
61)Southern Miss 73.56 61.44
62)Wake Forest 71.50 63.50
63)UNLV 69.02 65.98
64)North Carolina 67.87 67.13
65)Louisiana Tech 66.54 68.46
66)Washington State 65.70 69.30
67)Maryland 65.35 69.65
68)Michigan State 63.96 71.04
69)Tulane 63.26 71.74
70)UConn 63.17 71.83
71)Kennesaw State 62.93 72.07
72)Wisconsin 62.77 72.23
73)Florida 62.21 72.79
74)California 62.00 73.00
75)Navy 61.90 73.10
76)Colorado 60.95 74.05
77)Miami (OH) 58.97 76.03
78)Minnesota 57.28 77.72
79)Utah State 57.14 77.86
80)UCLA 55.51 79.49
81)San José State 55.51 79.49
82)Ohio 55.42 79.58
83)Purdue 54.91 80.09
84)Texas State 53.07 81.93
85)Army 51.43 83.57
86)Rutgers 51.07 83.93
87)Western Kentucky 50.66 84.34
88)Central Michigan 49.17 85.83
89)West Virginia 48.31 86.69
90)Wyoming 47.89 87.11
91)Liberty 47.83 87.17
92)Western Michigan 47.31 87.69
93)Virginia Tech 46.79 88.21
94)Stanford 46.44 88.56
95)UTSA 45.78 89.22
96)App State 45.33 89.67
97)Jacksonville State 43.81 91.19
98)Marshall 43.47 91.53
99)Buffalo 42.66 92.34
100)Hawai'i 42.08 92.92
101)Fresno State 41.30 93.70
102)Temple 40.87 94.13
103)Troy 40.13 94.87
104)Coastal Carolina 38.68 96.32
105)New Mexico State 38.49 96.51
106)Missouri State 38.00 97.00
107)Florida Atlantic 37.94 97.06
108)Delaware 36.93 98.07
109)Air Force 36.74 98.26
110)Syracuse 34.32 100.68
111)Louisiana 33.74 101.26
112)South Alabama 33.57 101.43
113)Arkansas State 32.33 102.67
114)Georgia Southern 31.66 103.34
115)Eastern Michigan 31.63 103.37
116)Rice 30.15 104.85
117)UTEP 29.64 105.36
118)Northern Illinois 29.22 105.78
119)Oregon State 27.70 107.30
120)Tulsa 27.55 107.45
121)Florida International 27.28 107.72
122)Akron 25.84 109.16
123)Bowling Green 24.99 110.01
124)UAB 24.48 110.52
125)Colorado State 23.43 111.57
126)UL Monroe 23.01 111.99
127)Boston College 22.89 112.11
128)Oklahoma State 22.31 112.69
129)Kent State 20.99 114.01
130)Nevada 20.70 114.30
131)Middle Tennessee 19.06 115.94
132)Ball State 17.16 117.84
133)Georgia State 15.43 119.57
134)Charlotte 11.55 123.45
135)Sam Houston 8.72 126.28
136)Massachusetts 4.72 130.28