College Football Nerds Rankings

Take a look at our Computer Model 1-136 ranking that simulates each team playing all other 132 FBS teams in college football.

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College Football Nerds Computer Model 1-136

This ranking is based on modeling every team against every other team in the country and calculating expected record. Outcomes are matchup-dependent, so a lower-ranked team may still be favored in the model over some higher-ranked teams. The modeling is conference/opponent adjusted, and overall records reflect win probabilities (an even game is 0.5-0.5)

 
Wins Losses
1)Miami 134.37 2.63
2)Alabama 132.85 4.15
3)Georgia 130.30 6.70
4)Notre Dame 128.64 8.36
5)Texas 127.44 9.56
6)Ohio State 127.41 9.59
7)Utah 126.13 10.87
8)LSU 122.48 14.52
9)Indiana 121.57 15.43
10)Missouri 118.58 18.42
11)UCLA 115.97 21.03
12)Nebraska 115.14 21.86
13)Pittsburgh 114.12 22.88
14)Wake Forest 113.30 23.70
15)Mississippi State 113.17 23.83
16)Texas Tech 110.33 26.67
17)Wisconsin 109.46 27.54
18)Penn State 108.83 28.17
19)James Madison 108.78 28.22
20)Houston 108.61 28.39
21)Northwestern 107.61 29.39
22)Duke 107.25 29.75
23)BYU 106.66 30.34
24)Florida State 105.69 31.31
25)Florida 105.14 31.86
26)New Mexico 103.29 33.71
27)Arizona 102.69 34.31
28)South Carolina 101.74 35.26
29)Tennessee 101.22 35.78
30)Baylor 101.20 35.80
31)Oklahoma 101.19 35.81
32)USC 100.16 36.84
33)Georgia State 98.21 38.79
34)North Dakota State 98.15 38.85
35)Oregon 96.78 40.22
36)Liberty 96.64 40.36
37)Boise State 95.22 41.78
38)Ole Miss 94.13 42.87
39)Kentucky 93.94 43.06
40)Kansas 93.67 43.33
41)Auburn 93.01 43.99
42)Memphis 92.98 44.02
43)Oklahoma State 92.82 44.18
44)Michigan 92.57 44.43
45)Virginia Tech 89.81 47.19
46)UCF 87.86 49.14
47)SMU 86.57 50.43
48)Texas A&M 85.45 51.55
49)Iowa State 85.02 51.98
50)Louisville 83.86 53.14
51)Fresno State 83.00 54.00
52)Oregon State 82.76 54.24
53)Toledo 82.10 54.90
54)Iowa 79.63 57.37
55)Illinois 78.54 58.46
56)Kansas State 76.80 60.20
57)Cincinnati 75.15 61.85
58)TCU 74.72 62.28
59)Virginia 74.11 62.89
60)Louisiana 73.95 63.05
61)Massachusetts 73.08 63.92
62)Washington 72.53 64.47
63)Air Force 71.16 65.84
64)Minnesota 69.30 67.70
65)North Carolina 69.19 67.81
66)Temple 68.43 68.57
67)Florida International 68.07 68.93
68)Jacksonville State 66.54 70.46
69)UTSA 65.94 71.06
70)Nevada 65.83 71.17
71)Clemson 65.38 71.62
72)Purdue 64.19 72.81
73)UNLV 62.51 74.49
74)North Texas 62.50 74.50
75)Syracuse 62.26 74.74
76)Vanderbilt 62.24 74.76
77)UConn 61.71 75.29
78)West Virginia 61.27 75.73
79)Boston College 61.05 75.95
80)Texas State 60.58 76.42
81)Michigan State 60.32 76.68
82)South Florida 58.18 78.82
83)Troy 56.87 80.13
84)Florida Atlantic 55.82 81.18
85)South Alabama 54.31 82.69
86)Miami (OH) 54.28 82.72
87)Maryland 53.62 83.38
88)Tulsa 53.61 83.39
89)San José State 52.96 84.04
90)Utah State 52.90 84.10
91)App State 52.70 84.30
92)Tulane 52.48 84.52
93)Rutgers 51.11 85.89
94)Eastern Michigan 48.31 88.69
95)Navy 47.93 89.07
96)Stanford 45.92 91.08
97)California 45.55 91.45
98)Georgia Southern 44.88 92.12
99)Georgia Tech 44.73 92.27
100)UAB 43.72 93.28
101)New Mexico State 41.34 95.66
102)Wyoming 41.28 95.72
103)Ohio 41.11 95.89
104)NC State 40.98 96.02
105)Louisiana Tech 40.67 96.33
106)Western Michigan 40.00 97.00
107)Arkansas State 39.79 97.21
108)Central Michigan 38.00 99.00
109)Colorado State 37.13 99.87
110)San Diego State 36.94 100.06
111)Arkansas 36.57 100.43
112)Arizona State 35.50 101.50
113)Delaware 35.09 101.91
114)Sam Houston 35.02 101.98
115)Hawai'i 34.67 102.33
116)Colorado 33.86 103.14
117)East Carolina 33.61 103.39
118)Army 33.20 103.80
119)Rice 31.98 105.02
120)Middle Tennessee 31.59 105.41
121)Coastal Carolina 30.62 106.38
122)Washington State 27.32 109.68
123)Southern Miss 24.99 112.01
124)Old Dominion 23.92 113.08
125)Kennesaw State 23.90 113.10
126)Buffalo 19.58 117.42
127)Charlotte 19.15 117.85
128)Marshall 18.81 118.19
129)Bowling Green 16.68 120.32
130)Sacramento State 16.65 120.35
131)Northern Illinois 15.32 121.68
132)Ball State 14.87 122.13
133)Missouri State 14.76 122.24
134)Kent State 14.70 122.30
135)Akron 12.88 124.12
136)Western Kentucky 8.07 128.93
137)UL Monroe 7.86 129.14
138)UTEP 5.53 131.47